Celtic’s extraordinary Champions League collapse against LASK may ultimately prove more damaging than simply missing out on this season’s league phase.
Having travelled to Austria with a three-goal advantage from the first leg, and then gone four ahead on aggregate when Callum McGregor scored after 21 minutes, Celtic appeared to have qualification secured. Instead, they conceded five unanswered goals, losing 5–1 on the night and 5–4 on aggregate. In the process, they only became the second club to have surrendered a four goal lead and lost in the long history of the Champions League.
The immediate consequences are substantial. Instead of competing against Europe’s leading clubs in the Champions League, Celtic will drop into the Europa League, while missing out on income that could potentially have reached £40 million.
For a club in Celtic’s financial position, that is not an existential blow. However, it potentially affects their ability to strengthen the squad and, in turn, their chances of competing successfully in Europe. There is a danger of a vicious circle developing: failure to qualify means less European income, which makes strengthening the squad more difficult and future qualification harder.
And that is where the longer-term significance of the LASK defeat becomes apparent.
Scotland’s declining UEFA coefficient means the country’s champions can no longer expect the favourable access to the Champions League they have sometimes enjoyed in recent seasons.
Consequently, even if Celtic retain the Scottish Premiership title this season, their route into the 2027–28 Champions League is expected to be considerably more difficult.
Rather than potentially qualifying automatically for the league phase, Celtic are expected to enter in the second qualifying round. They would therefore have to negotiate three separate ties — six matches — merely to reach the competition proper.
Recent history suggests that cannot be taken for granted.
Last season Celtic were eliminated in qualifying by Kairat Almaty of Kazakhstan, a team ranked even lower than LASK. This time they somehow surrendered a four-goal aggregate advantage. If they cannot overcome opponents of that level across a single qualifying tie, successfully negotiating three consecutive rounds represents a considerably greater challenge.
Celtic can hardly blame the structure of European competition for their predicament. Their financial resources dwarf those available to many clubs they are likely to encounter during qualification. They are not being denied Champions League football by Real Madrid, Bayern Munich or Paris Saint-Germain, but by clubs against whom they should reasonably expect to compete successfully.
There is also an uncomfortable paradox. Celtic remain the dominant force in Scottish football, but domestic dominance becomes less valuable in European terms as Scotland’s coefficient declines. Winning another league title may bring another trophy, but it will no longer provide a straightforward route into the Champions League.
The most damaging consequence of the LASK defeat, therefore, may not become apparent for another 12 months.
Celtic have lost their place in this season’s Champions League. Their bigger problem is that getting back there is becoming progressively more difficult. Next summer they could have six qualifying matches standing between themselves and the league phase.
For a team that has just surrendered a four-goal advantage against LASK, that is an uncomfortable prospect.
